News moves Markets,
so we Measured it.
We classified 72,036 historical events spanning ninety years. Analyse how asset classes reacted under stress, policy shocks, and structural shifts. No predictions. Just cold, empirical evidence.
"Iraq invades Kuwait."
This has happened before.
When news drops, VEILLE matches it against 72,036 classified events and pulls its closest historical analogues. Below, four live pairings: the modern event's path laid directly over its precedent's, session by session, with the correlation measured — not asserted.
Nothing here forecasts. Both paths are what actually printed; correlation is Pearson r on the closing path across the sessions after each event — the same measurement the terminal runs when it overlays any two events in the archive.
Every pairing above is one query in the terminal. When the next headline breaks, pull its analogues, overlay the paths, and test the strategy against exactly this history — sizing, stops, holding period — before committing capital.
Backtest against historyAnalyse live news against ninety years of archives.
When a headline lands, the engine narrows the archive to prior events of the same kind and ranks them on the state of the market each one landed in. Two archive queries below, each joined to the precedent the engine ranked first — and the shape similarity measured on the paths that followed.
"FOMC policy statement: March 15-16, 2022"
"U.S. to Restore Sanctions on Iran, Deepening Divide With Europe"
Shape similarity is Pearson r on the two post-event closing paths (n = 21 closes, t₀ to +20 sessions). It says how alike the two drawn lines are — not a probability that the move repeats. Across real pairs it is centred near zero — most matches do not rhyme this closely, which is what makes these two worth showing. Every figure is the engine's own output, unedited.
What moved the price today — and how far the shock travels.
Six instruments turn a session into a plain-language read: what was anticipated, what was shock and what is drift; how large the move was against its own history; and which markets the headline reached, in what order. Three of them below, as worked examples.
The Daily Decomposition
What moved the price today — split into what was anticipated, what was shock, and what is drift. In plain language.
“+1.4% arrived in the 40 minutes after the OPEC+ headline; +0.6% was already priced from Wednesday's draw; +0.1% we can't attribute — so we say so.”
Bar width is the share of the session move; the figure on the right is the percentage-point contribution. The four components sum to the printed +2.4%.
Magnitude
A severity score for market news — the Richter scale for markets. Epicenter, aftershocks, decay.
OPEC+ surprise cut
Larger than 89% of the 112 supply-shock events measured since 1988.
Scale runs 0–9 on measured abnormal move against a trailing-volatility baseline. n = 112 supply-shock events.
Cascade
The measured event graph: how a shock travels from headline through markets, animated. Every arrow is a measured link, never an asserted one.
Headline → epicenter → aftershocks. Latencies are medians over n = 112 traced cascades; each leg prints its own n, because not every cascade reaches every node. A node's column on the graph is its latency in the table.
Risk bands, the analog engine and the psychology exhibits complete the set of six. Every instrument reports a measured figure with its n, or says plainly that the record does not cover the question yet.
Sign up for beta testEight cases, as the engine ranked them.
Each card is one archive record: the day the news landed, its classification, the benchmark it is measured on, and the closes that followed — drawn, not described. Four are recent archive queries; four are the rank-one precedents the engine returned for them.
“Over 20 sessions” is the close twenty sessions after t₀ against the close of the session the news landed in; “next session” is the first close after it. Both are recomputed from our own daily candles and printed as they come — including the flat ones. Nothing here forecasts.
The Classified Event Archive
Veille catalogues occurrences according to strict structural profiles, ensuring metadata is comparable over ninety years.
Review historical evidence before committing capital.
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