Classified event engine Macro evidence system matching ninety years of market precedents 72,036 events classified
The classified event archive

News moves Markets,
so we Measured it.

We classified 72,036 historical events spanning ninety years. Analyse how asset classes reacted under stress, policy shocks, and structural shifts. No predictions. Just cold, empirical evidence.

Fig. 01 From the archive 01 / 20
Aug 1990

"Iraq invades Kuwait."

BRENT +11.6% NEXT SESSION
A random walk through the archive — a piece of news, the daily closes around it, and the measured next-session move. Every number and every path is pulled from the archive itself.
Archive range
1936 – 2026
Events classified
72,036
Joined datasets
News × Price
Precedent Matching

This has happened before.

When news drops, VEILLE matches it against 72,036 classified events and pulls its closest historical analogues. Below, four live pairings: the modern event's path laid directly over its precedent's, session by session, with the correlation measured — not asserted.

Nothing here forecasts. Both paths are what actually printed; correlation is Pearson r on the closing path across the sessions after each event — the same measurement the terminal runs when it overlays any two events in the archive.

Every pairing above is one query in the terminal. When the next headline breaks, pull its analogues, overlay the paths, and test the strategy against exactly this history — sizing, stops, holding period — before committing capital.

Backtest against history
Headline matching technology

Analyse live news against ninety years of archives.

When a headline lands, the engine narrows the archive to prior events of the same kind and ranks them on the state of the market each one landed in. Two archive queries below, each joined to the precedent the engine ranked first — and the shape similarity measured on the paths that followed.

Archive query · 16 Mar 2022 · USD / yen

"FOMC policy statement: March 15-16, 2022"

shape r +0.85
Rank-1 precedent · 9 Jun 1982
Interest Rates Rise Modestly
CLASS · MACRO FX — RATE DECISION · RANK 1 OF 999 PRIORS
Archive query · 6 Aug 2018 · Brent spot

"U.S. to Restore Sanctions on Iran, Deepening Divide With Europe"

shape r +0.83
Rank-1 precedent · 10 Jul 2017
Germany’s Siemens Says Russian Partner Violated Crimea Sanctions
CLASS · ENERGY — SANCTIONS ACTION · RANK 1 OF 431 PRIORS

Shape similarity is Pearson r on the two post-event closing paths (n = 21 closes, t₀ to +20 sessions). It says how alike the two drawn lines are — not a probability that the move repeats. Across real pairs it is centred near zero — most matches do not rhyme this closely, which is what makes these two worth showing. Every figure is the engine's own output, unedited.

The Personal Economist

What moved the price today — and how far the shock travels.

Six instruments turn a session into a plain-language read: what was anticipated, what was shock and what is drift; how large the move was against its own history; and which markets the headline reached, in what order. Three of them below, as worked examples.

Worked examples · sample figures · instruments in build
Instrument 01
SampleIn build · D1

The Daily Decomposition

What moved the price today — split into what was anticipated, what was shock, and what is drift. In plain language.

WTI · last session
+2.4%
40-min shock window
n = 112 comparable
Anticipated
+0.6%
Shock
+1.4%
Drift
+0.3%
Unattributed
+0.1%
Reads

“+1.4% arrived in the 40 minutes after the OPEC+ headline; +0.6% was already priced from Wednesday's draw; +0.1% we can't attribute — so we say so.”

Bar width is the share of the session move; the figure on the right is the percentage-point contribution. The four components sum to the printed +2.4%.

Instrument 02
SampleIn build · B2

Magnitude

A severity score for market news — the Richter scale for markets. Epicenter, aftershocks, decay.

M 6.3

OPEC+ surprise cut

0quake scale9

Larger than 89% of the 112 supply-shock events measured since 1988.

AftershockReading
Epicenter · +40 minM 6.3
+1 sessionM 3.1
+3 sessionsM 1.4

Scale runs 0–9 on measured abnormal move against a trailing-volatility baseline. n = 112 supply-shock events.

Instrument 03
SampleIn build · D7

Cascade

The measured event graph: how a shock travels from headline through markets, animated. Every arrow is a measured link, never an asserted one.

n = 112 traced cascades
OPEC+ BRENT WTI XLE CRACK CADJPY USDNOK HY EN t₀+3 MIN+25 MIN ~2 H~1 SESS
Measured reachMedian latency
Energy equities · XLE
~25 min
Refining margin · CRACK
~25 min
Petro-FX · CADJPY, USDNOK
~2 h
HY energy credit · HY EN
~1 session

Headline → epicenter → aftershocks. Latencies are medians over n = 112 traced cascades; each leg prints its own n, because not every cascade reaches every node. A node's column on the graph is its latency in the table.

Risk bands, the analog engine and the psychology exhibits complete the set of six. Every instrument reports a measured figure with its n, or says plainly that the record does not cover the question yet.

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Analysis cards

Eight cases, as the engine ranked them.

Each card is one archive record: the day the news landed, its classification, the benchmark it is measured on, and the closes that followed — drawn, not described. Four are recent archive queries; four are the rank-one precedents the engine returned for them.

“Over 20 sessions” is the close twenty sessions after t₀ against the close of the session the news landed in; “next session” is the first close after it. Both are recomputed from our own daily candles and printed as they come — including the flat ones. Nothing here forecasts.

Ontology & depth

The Classified Event Archive

Veille catalogues occurrences according to strict structural profiles, ensuring metadata is comparable over ninety years.

Explore complete archive
Taxonomy branch Indexed volume Analytical baseline
Geopolitical 11,240 events Embargoes, conflicts, territorial shifts, trade blockades
Monetary Policy 9,850 events Emergency rate changes, quantitative adjustments, forward-guidance shocks
Regulatory & Law 8,340 events Anti-trust filings, industrial nationalisation, tariff implementations
Natural & Resource 6,410 events OPEC quotas, wheat embargoes, major shipping corridor blocks
Industrial Collapse 6,056 events Sovereign debt restructuring, major conglomerate bankruptcies, exchange halts
Beta access

Review historical evidence before committing capital.

Stop trading based on qualitative narratives. Gain institutional access to ninety years of parsed macro precedent data joined with session-by-session pricing paths.